Written by Greg Fertel | 27 February 2008

Baseball America has the news:

Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez, a two-time first-team All-American and the No. 1 prospect for the 2008 draft, will miss a minimum of six weeks after breaking a bone in his hand in Vandy’s season opener against Oregon State on Friday.

Given Alvarez's talent and impressive track record, it is almost unthinkable to imagine that the Yankees might have a shot at drafting him with the #28 overall pick. However, this injury might complicate things. If he misses a lot of the season and comes back slowly, it might seriously hurt his draft stock, especially if agent Scott Boras demands a bonus in the range of the enormous one that Matt Wieters received from Baltimore last draft. While this is probably a long shot, there may be hope for the Yankees. In a similar situation 2 years ago, Florida slugger Matt LaPorta, a consensus 1st-rounder (and a possible top 10 guy) who was limited by an oblique injury, but fell to Boston in the 14th round in 2006, as agent Scott Boras demanded a bonus that would be more an evaluation of LaPorta's 2 healthy years while disregarding his injured season. As we know, LaPorta didn't sign, returned to school, and wound up being a the #7 overall pick in 2007. Could the same thing happen with Alvarez? The situation is slightly different because Alvarez is considered a greater talent than Laporta. However, both are prolific college power hitters who suffered significant injuries in their junior years. If Alvarez is significantly limited by his injury this season, he could fall to the Yankees in the draft. If this happens, I hope Cashman and Oppenheimer have the stones to take him and the cash to sign this talented Bronx native. I've been saying all along that the only way Alvarez falls to the Yankees is a serious injury, and they may have just gotten a huge break (pun not intended). His power bat would certainly be a tremendous asset to the Yankees' farm system, and we could be looking at a possible 1st baseman or corner outfielder of the future. Update 3/1: BA is reporting that it has spoken to scouts who believe that Alvarez's injury is a broken hamate bone, the same injury suffered by Jose Tabata.  This injury is fairly serious, and could hamper Pedro's performance this season when he returns, causing loss of power in the short term.  It shouldn't be a problem for him over the long haul, but this could be a tough season for the Commodore from the Bronx.  Man, if he falls to #28......

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