Written by Greg Fertel
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21 February 2008
- Age: 23
- Height: 6?0?
- Weight: 185
- Position: Starting Pitcher
- Throws: Right
Scouting Report: Kennedy sits at 89-92 with his 4-seam fastball and 87-90 with his 2-seamer. In 3 MLB starts, the two pitches averaged 91 mph. He threw the 2-seamer frequently during his major league debut, with strong lateral movement. He threw 58% fastballs - low for any pitcher. 20% of his pitches were changeups, averaging 81 mph with a decent amount of sink. He threw the slider and curveball less, at 12% and 10% respectively. He threw mostly sliders to right-handed batters and curveballs to lefties. With two strikes, he went to the changeup 3:1 over his breaking pitches. He has very strong command and control. I hate to cite makeup, but Kennedy's a true artist on the mound and sets up hitters like his model, Mike Mussina. (Pitch numbers from
Small Ball to Long Ball)
History: Kennedy put up two of the more dominant seasons in NCAA history. In 2004 and 2005, Kennedy pitched a combined 209.2 innings. He posted a 2.70 ERA between the two years, striking out 278 and walking just 69. He was being talked about as a potential top-5 pick in the draft. We dont really know what followed. Kennedy was either hiding an injury or had draftitis, because he was only average his third year, with a 3.90 ERA and 102 strikeouts against 32 walks in 101 2/3 innings. He signed late and only got a handful of innings in with Staten Island before being sent to the newly created Hawaiian Winter Ball league. His ERA wasnt great at 4.56, but he struck out 45 in 30 innings and most of those runs came in an 8-run game where Kennedy struggled with the brand new 2-seamer. The Yankees sent him to Tampa to start 2007.
This Season: If Kennedy averaged 93 instead of 91 on the fastball, his 2007 season would vault him to the top of all league-wide prospect lists. He started the season off in Tampa, pitching 63 innings with a 1.29 ERA, with 10.29 K/9 and 3.14 BB/9. Promoted to Trenton, Kennedy pitched another 48 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.59 10.54 K/9 and 3.14 BB/9. Pushed to Triple-A, his ERA stood at 2.08 in 34 2/3 innings, with 8.83 K/9 and 2.86 BB/9. Finally, he filled a void at the major league level in September, pitching 19 innings in 3 starts, with an ERA of 1.89, 7.11 K/9, and 4.26 BB/9. Those are a lot of rates, so look at the overall numbers:
165 innings with 1.90 ERA, 9.70 K/9, and 3.21 BB/9 in his first professional season while rocketing up four levels. Kennedy's for real.
Outlook and Movement: He's in the major leagues. Conceivably, he could be sent to Triple-A, but he won't. He should be ready for 190+ innings this season after heavy college work loads and 165 innings in 2007, to go with clean mechanics and a low-effort delivery.
Ranking: Eric and I agreed and listed Kennedy at #1. Ashish has him at #3. I'm Kennedy's biggest fan on the internet. I'm still disgusting by the persistent statements dooming him to "#3 starter" status at peak. Besides that fact that I don't think that anyone who makes that accusation can define in precise terms
what they mean by #3 starter, I think people are ridiculously underrating his ceiling. Kennedy has been one of the most dominant pitchers in organized baseball for 3 of his last 4 years of pitching. Strikeout rates are the lifeblood of a starting pitcher, and Kennedy has a truly special ability to strike people out. Worst case scenario, he's a solid above-average innings eater. Best case scenario: he's the heir to Mike Mussina. If the Yankees compete with the Red Sox for the AL East this year, Ian Kennedy will have to play a very important part.
