Written by Greg Fertel | 26 August 2007

It's pretty clear now: Philip Hughes is messed up. He is clearly not the player right now that was placed on the top of prospect lists and looked ready to take the major leagues by storm. At the end of 2006, Hughes was comfortably pumping 95 mph fastballs on the corners to Eastern League Batters. Today, Hughes was erratically controlling a fastball that barely topped 91 mph and quite often fell into the high 80s. He was eratically controlling what used to be one of the minor's best curveballs, and barely was able to throw the changeup. Michael Kay asked the question to Al Leiter during the broadcast today, "Do you see greatness in Phil Hughes" and Leiter did everything he could to avoid saying "No". Leiter, as honest as a broadcaster can be in today's world, pointed out what he saw: a kid with plus-plus makeup, plus control, a good curveball, a good body, good mechanics and an average four-seam fastball. In other words, he saw Phil Hughes in 2004. He didn't see the finely-honed product that the Yankees brought through their system. What happened? The short answer is 'a lot of things'. Hughes lefty the Yankees for almost three months with a hamstring after no-hitting the Texas Rangers through 8 innings. When I reported on that game, I counted the velocity on his fastballs. Hughes was pitching at 92 or 93 mph. That's not the 95 mph that he was hitting before (Hughes had 3 pitches at 94 mph, but none higher), but it's respectable. Clearly, something was different from the year before, but he still had a plus fastball. Today's Phil Hughes had an average or worse 4-seam fastball. What happened? Where did Phil Hughes go? Well, there are a couple of theories. 1. Arm strength and Injuries. After not throwing in the offseason, it was going to take Phil some time to work back up to his maximum velocity. He was at 92-93 in May, and if everything went right, would be back at 95 by the time the summer rolled around. Unfortunately, the hamstring injury and subsequent ankle injury brought him a step back in arm strength. At present, the injuries are also impeding him mentally; preventing him from using his legs as well. 2. Mechanics. Last May, before Phil's injury, Carlos Gomez wrote a very informative piece on Hughes' mechanics, and followed it up with two more. In sum, Gomez writes that mechanically, the Hughes of 2006 and the Hughes of 2007 are different pitchers. The 2007 Hughes is throwing from a higher arm slot with a more controlled, less athletic stance, causing reduced velocity and movement on his fastball, but better break on his curveball. There really isn't much doubt in my mind that #2 is the real answer. Someone, somehow decided to mess with Hughes' mechanics, and he's suffering now for it. The 92-93 mph Phil is probably what we can expect to get back when he's healthy. A line at the end of Carlos Gomez's article in May almost perfectly echoes what Al Leiter said this evening:

And yet, even with his four-seam fastball, and such an over the top delivery, how did he get a reputation for being a groundball pitcher? Is it mostly his curveball that causes all those ground outs? His fastball in '07 is more conducive with flyouts/strikeouts... I can see the ground balls with his '06 mechanics, and I'm willing to bet that he's been getting more fly balls after the arm slot change.

I don't like Phil's transformation. Why it was made is unknown to me - and it could very well have to do with a perfectly reasonable concern like the long term health of his shoulder. However, Phil does become a worse pitcher with the changes. I wrote many times before the seasons started that Hughes was "The perfect pitcher, bringing a power fastball, great curveball, phenomenal control, and the superb ability to keep the ball on the ground. Phil Hughes is without weakness." Guess what? That's no longer the case. Phil's "new" mechanics do not allow him to keep the ball on the ground (he seems to have completely abandoned his 2-seamer), and have taken away his ability to blow hitters away when his control fails. He'll give up more home runs (his greatest strength in the minors was preventing home runs) than he would with his natural mechanics. Are the two injuries playing a factor right now? I think that's pretty evident. He's not getting the controlled bite on his curveball that we saw in May, and the velocity is way down. He'll return to form, and even now could become a very good major league pitcher, but we're not looking at the minor's best pitcher. We're looking at a potential Javy Vazquez or John Lackey if everything goes right, instead of say, Curt Schilling or Mark Prior Am I being alarmist? Maybe. It's possible. Phil could always undo the damage done to him, or he could still be in the process of adjusting to his new mechanics. I hope that I'm wrong.

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