Written by Greg Fertel
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28 August 2007
Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, Tyler Clippard, Darrell Rasner, Matt DeSalvo, Kei Igawa, Jeff Karstens, Carl Pavano, Chase Wright.
12 starting pitchers this season. Seven rookies. The Yankees have had major problems with starting pitching this season, with only Andy Pettitte making all of his starts this season. Mike Mussina looks shot out there, and the Yankees will need a starting pitcher for Saturday's start against the Devil Rays. A lot of variables will go through their mind when choosing the next starter. Who could they choose?
If they opt for the best win-now solution:
Ian Kennedy has been virtually flawless this season. Despite criticism that the Yankees drafted a soft-thrower who would be (quoting Baseball America here), "Nothing more than a 5th starter", Kennedy now looks like a potential major league impact pitcher, efficiently sawing his way through International League lineups. He's risen from Single-A Tampa to Triple-A Scranton in just a few months, dominating along every step. However, the rigid Yankee development program (successful thus far) calls for Kennedy to pitch around 150 innings this season, which he is on track to match. He's out.
If they opt for experience.
Kei Igawa has had a rocky season. He was placed in the starting rotation to begin the year, but quickly got blown away. Igawa was sent down to the minors, and after a too-short stay (necessitated by the Yankee's May pitching woes), he was called up again, and again two more times later in the summer. Igawa has been very solid at Scranton (3.45 ERA, 68/16 K/BB in 70 innings) for Scranton, but his penchant for high fastballs has given him a sky-high home run rate in the majors, allowing 15 in 62 innings (Wang has allowed 19 in his last 377 innings). Joe Torre and the Yankees value experience, and he certainly has it over the rest of the potential replacements, but I think that they'll wait until next year for Igawa.
If they want a familiar face:
Jeff Karstens spent some time with the Yankees in 2006, pitching 42 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.80. He started the 2007 season as a spot starter/long reliever, but quickly wound up on the disabled list with a fractured leg after being hit with a line drive. No one in the minor leagues has hit Karstens yet this season (1.49 ERA in 36 1/3 innings, spread between 5 different Yankee affiliates), but he's been blown away in the majors. The Yankees will give Karstens a "try again next year" and move on.
If they go with who's hot
Matt DeSalvo started the 2007 season by being designated for assignment. A month later, he was back up, and pitched very well for two starts against the Seattle Mariners. However, a high walk rate and low strikeout rate caught up with him, and he got blasted away in subsequent starts. DeSalvo has dominated the minor leagues (with the exception of a lost 2006 season) at every stop, but mental issues and a lack of a true strikeout pitch has slowed his progress to the major leagues. Still, it's hard to ignore a 2.82 ERA at Triple-A, and a long minor league track record. The knock against his Triple-A performance? 51 walks in 108 innings. DeSalvo is coming off a fantastic 8 inning, 1 run (allowed to scored by the Scranton bullpen) appearance, so the Yankees may try to catch lightning in a bottle.
If they don't want to repeat history
Steven White was forgotten by most Yankee prospect watchers at the beginning of the season. The more exciting quintet of Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Alan Horne, and Tyler Clippard were grabbing headlines. White remained sidelined with a mysterious nerve injury in his shoulder. He made his season debut for Scranton in July 7th, and has been remarkably consistent since. White has posted a 3.61 ERA in 84 2/3 innings, striking out 48 and walking 27 over that span, and allowing just three home runs. You'd like to see a higher strikeout rate, but everything else points to a pitcher who could provide the Yankees much-needed league average innings.
Five names, and the Yankees have five days (now four) to make a decision. I think that they'll go with Steve White. Besides Kennedy, White is probably the best win-now option (and the Yankees can't afford to give away any more games), and he'll have to be added to the 40-man roster in November regardless of what the Yankees do now. He's always been high on the Yankee depth charts. I've always said that White has a future in the bullpen, but for now we'll have to see if he can maintain his velocity over 6+ innings.
