Written by Greg Fertel | 26 April 2007

Phil Hughes will start tonight's game against Toronto. It is my intention to write an all-encompassing guide to Phil for someone who has never heard of him. In addition, I'll make a prediction and say a few words about the best pitching prospect in baseball. History: The Yankees drafted Phil in the 1st round of the 2004 draft, using the pick that we recieved as compensation for Andy Pettitte's flight to Texas. He was signed for a standard 1.4 million dollar bonus. The 2004 draft with loaded with pitching talent, which is one of the reasons why Phil fell to us. Guys like Phil Humber, Glen Perkins, Jered Weaver, Homer Bailey, Jeremy Sowers, and Justin Verlander were drafted above him. Phil was then considered as a guy with strong mechanics, a great body type, decent velocity, and good control. He was not yet considered a power pitcher, and mainly pitched well thanks to a plus slider. The Yankees took Hughes to their farm system and very slowly taught him how to pitch. They took away his slider and gave him a curveball - which would function more as an offspeed breaking pitch and put less strain on his arm. Phil pitched only 5 innings that season. He started the 2006 season in Charleston, where he would blow through A ball hitters. His new curveball was already a plus pitch, and Phil's velocity was up too. He was sitting at 93-95 instead of 91-92, and flashing radar readings up to 97. He pitched 68 2/3 innings of 1.97 ERA baseball, followed by 17 2/3 innings at 3.06 ERA in Tampa. He finished the season shut down with the mildest of mild shoulder tendonitis. The Yankees set two goals for the 2006 season for Phil. First, he would pitch roughly 150 innings. They did not want him to pitch more, as to preserve his golden arm. They did not want him to pitch less, because he needed to build arm strength. Second, they wanted to incorporate Phil's changeup in to his repetoire. He had thrown a changeup in high school but his slider was so good that it never developed in to a good pitch. The Yankees made him throw 10-15 changeups per game, and quickly Hughes transformed it in to an effective weapon. He ended up pitching 152 innings that season, striking out 185 and walking 35 between Trenton and Tampa. His ERA was 2.13. The Yankees decided to put an innings cap on Hughes by the summer of 2006, not allowing him to pitch more than 5 innings in a start. By the end, it was clear to the Yankees that Hughes had nothing more to learn at AA. His final 10 starts at AA saw a 1.29 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 48 2/3 innings against just 11 walks. The rest of the world picked up on what Yankee fans knew about Hughes during the 2006 offseason, and he became the consensus top pitching prospect in the minors. Scouting: Phil throws a 93-95 mph 4-seam fastball and a slightly slower 2-seam fastball. He has one of the best curveballs in the minors, a true strikeout weapon with a 1-7 break. His changeup has become a near-plus pitch, but he's not neccessarily willing to throw it in all counts. Don't expect to see a lot of changeups in his first few major league starts. He'll stay within his comfort zone. Phil's greatest asset is his control. He has a Schilling-like ability to throw quality strikes with his power fastball. If he had an average fastball and average secondary pitches, Phil would be an effective innings eater simply on the virtue of his ability to not walk people. His great control translates to few pitches left in the middle of the plate, which is demonstrated in his allowing only 6 home runs in 253 career minor league innings. In addition to the strikeouts (286 K in 252 career innings), Phil consistently gets ground balls with his great 2-seamer. Predictions: Expect some jitters tonight. Phil takes a few starts to adjust to a new level (3.06 ERA in his first 4 starts in Tampa, 3.99 ERA in Trenton, 3.94 in Scranton). His control and stuff keep him out of big innings, so he should at least be above average for the first month or so, but expect him to do what he always does if he stays in the majors for long. I'm going to make the following predictions: First Start: 6 IP, 4 ER, 2 Walks, 5 Strikeouts Season: 25 starts, 165 innings, 3.65 ERA, 55 walks, 155 strikeouts. Playoffs: He will start Game 3 of the ALDS.

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