Written by Greg Fertel | 03 April 2007

Mike and I don't disagree on a lot, but we sure do disagree on Tyler Clippard. I ranked Tyler the #4 prospect in our system (behind Hughes, Tabata, and Joba), but he ranks him #12.

12. Tyler Clippard, RHP (Fabian: #5,EJ: #4) Do you know who Yusi Petit is? The former Mets prospect that was traded to Florida, and most recently to Arizona? He’s the same kind of pitcher as Clippard: ace-type stats but average stuff. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but the odds are stacked against Clippard having prolonged success in the bigs. He’s going to get chances though, so he better be ready. I’ll leave it at that (at least he’s durable). Oh yeah, he’s getting the Opening Day nod for Triple-A Scranton.

Mike compares Clippard to Yusmero Petit, who used to be with the Mets, but now is a Snake. Petit was a soft-tossing righty who put up some phenominal K/BB numbers from 2003 to 2005. Much better numbers than Clippard, who is no slouch. Petit had a decent, but lackluster AAA season at the age of 21, and completely fell apart in the majors. I don't think that the two players parellel each other. Petit relies a lot of a "deceptive" fastball, which didn't have as much punch against experienced hitters as it did in the low minors. He had and still has superb control - but he's not going to strike out 11 per 9 in the majors. Petit will still probably become some sort of MLB pitcher, but he's no ace. He also had some injury problems in 2006, which slowed his velocity from 89-90 down to the 86-87 range. Tyler Clippard does not rely on deception. He relies on a well located fastball, mixed in with strong curveballs and changeups. He throws a little harder than Petit (89-92 vs 88-90), and shouldn't have any health issues. He also is a lot bigger (6'4" vs 6'0"). I don't see Tyler Clippard striking out a batter per innings in the majors, but I don't think he will need to. Home runs will be a concern, but lots of successful MLB starters allow a home run per game. This whole thing reminds me of a couple of posts I exchanged with SG of RLYW. SG said,

Clippard's a very interesting prospect. It's tough to quibble with his performance record, but the fact that scouts aren't high on him is a little concerning. It sounds like his repetoire is that of someone like a young Aaron Sele. Hopefully he ends up better than that.

And I replied:

"Sele had a pretty good peak SG. If he hadn't gotten injured in 1995, he might have just have been pretty good. From 1998-2001, he put up 205+ innings every year and posted ERA+ numbers of 114, 105, 102, 117. I compared Clippard to Haren, he has put up 217/223 innings and ERA+ numbers of 120 and 108. I think that Clippard will put up Sele peak numbers for a longer peak."

I think that we need to remember what scale we are rating major league pitchers on. I think that Mike said it best himself: Clippard has average stuff with an ace-like performance record. An average pitcher will post an ERA of about 4.50 in the American League. An ace will be 3.50 or better. I'm predicting Clippard to split the difference and spend his durable career around 4.00-4.20 or so. That kind of production has a ton of value.

< Prev		Next >