Written by Greg Fertel | 22 December 2006

First off, thanks to everyone who sent in a mailbag question. Here’s my answers:

From Matt: A few years ago, trade talks with the Yankees always began with Eric Duncan… his is the only name I can remember being mentioned consistently. My friend and I joked that it was like he was the only guy in all of the Yankees’ farm system, and imagined him playing every position like Bugs Bunny. Since then, his stock has plummetted with his ho-hum numbers the past two years, with the exception of the 2005 AzFL. But the guy is still just 22 years old. Is there a chance he got rushed too fast (in part to feed the trade hype)? I looked for a comparable first baseman coming out of high school, and I found Justin Morneau, who posted the following line as a 21 year old in AA: .298/.356/.474 16 HR in 494 AB. Compare that to Duncan’s performance as a 21 year old in AA this year: .248/.355/.485 10 HR in 206 AB. Morneau then remained at AA as a 22 year old and put up an OPS of over 1.000. Am I making a valid comparison? What can we expect from Duncan in the future? Answer: The Yanks system was pretty barren when they drafted Duncan, so he immediately became the most intriguing guy in the system. The Yanks rushed him for a couple of reasons, the most obvious of which is that they were trying to up his trade value. Despite lots of K’s, poor batting averages and injuries (not just his back either, he got hit in the head with a pitch missed nearly 2 months a couple seasons back) they had him playing in Triple-A less than 3 years after being drafted, a rather aggressive timetable for a high school hitter, even a first rounder. Comparing Duncan to Morneau is a bit of a stretch, but like you said, he’s only 22, so he has plenty of time to recover. His biggest need is to just stay healthy for a full year, and it would be best for everyone if he did so in 2007 at Double-A rather than Triple-A. The Yanks aren’t hurting for prospects at the upper levels like they were in years past, so they can afford to be a bit more patient now than they have been with Duncan. That said, next year is critical for Duncan. From Pete: At what level do you see Tabata starting in 2007 and what sort of stats do you think he will produce? Answer: Tabata is all but guaranteed to start 2007 at High-A Tampa, even though he missed a good chunk of the year in 2006, there’s almost nothing left for him to prove at Low-A ball. Predicting stats is nearly impossible, but fun nonetheless, so I’ll give it a shot: .280-.345-.475-.820, 30 2B, 15 HR, 1 3B, 74 RBI, 15 SB, 56 BB, 130 K. If Tabata pulls that off at High-A while playing half the year at age 18, he’ll be one of the top 3 prospects in the game, so maybe those numbers a little too optimistic. The biggest question about Tabata is that nagging hand injury, and whether or not it becomes a chronic thing. From Anthony: Ok I could Understand if the Yanks feel pressure to develope and showcase quality arms from within the organization such as Boston has (Papelbon, Lester, Declarmen, Hansen) but do you think they should take a wait and see approach with they’re Top Prospect arms? As Much as it would be nice to see A Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes one Two Punch I’d much rather have the sure thing and WIN! Wouldn’t the yankees be better off packaging hughes to one of the other 31 teams who would surely take him for an ELITE pitcher…Alla Santana, Halladay, Zambrano (Carl that is haha), Oswalt, Carpenter….and Ohhhh yea that stud in florida??? Answer: Well since the league seems to have expanded to 32 teams, it would behoove the Yanks even more to hold onto some of their young arms with the increasingly diluted talent pool. Seriously though (hey, I’ve said dumb things countless times over my 10 months of blogging), the Yanks have enough pitching prospect depth nowadays that they can afford to deal off a guy like Ty Clippard or Steven White for an established veteran. You’ve gotta remember that dealing prospects for aging veterans got the Yanks where they were 2-3 years ago - an ungodly payroll for a roster of 30-somethings, and a barren farm system. I’m not interested into going back to those days one bit. You’d have to put together some sexy package to land a guy like Santana, Halladay or Oswalt, much too sexy for my taste. And who is this stud you’re talking about in Florida? Anibal Sanchez? Scott Olsen? I sure hope it’s not Dontrelle Willis, because he’s the most overrated pitcher in baseball in my book. He rode a very good offense in a pathetic division to a 22-win season in 2005, and now everybody thinks he’s the shit. There’s not a pitching coach on the planet that would touch that delivery once he gets older and his body thickens and tightens up (what happened to the Nomo Tornado as he aged?). He’d get rocked in the AL East; make Josh Beckett look like Tom Seaver.

Again, thanks to everyone who send in a question (all 3 of you). Now that’s uncalled for:

For some reason, Mets fans tend to get very defensive about their farm system, likely a form of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder from trades over the last few years. Face it guys: this system has three strong prospects at the top, four or five more who are interesting but have question marks, then a whole bunch of guys who are only marginal right now. This isn’t an insult; there are lots of systems like this around, and the Mets are not the worst. I just don’t understand why people get so upset about it. The Mets have problems, sure, but at least you are not rooting for the Minions of Evil like Yankees fans.

The Minions of Evil? Sigh, it seems that people are just getting lazy when it comes to taking shots at the Yanks. The creativity just isn’t there anymore. Take a look at the comments section of that post too, it’s kinda ridiculous how Met fans overvalue their prospects (I know I know, I’ve overvalued the Yankee guys, but read their comments….Fernando Martinez over Jay Bruce? Get real). The Yanks cut a slew of minor leaguers:

New York Yankees Signed 1B Karl Amonite Released RHP Tyler Addison Released RHP Anderson Amador Released RHP James Conroy Released RHP Jesus Mendez Released RHP Erik Morrison Released RHP David Seccombe Released LHP Domingo Cabrera Released LHP Edgar Omana Released 2B Anthony Roth Released OF Angel Fermin Released OF Ben Himes Rule 5 loss: OF Victor Hall (Phillies, Triple-A)

I’m a bit surprised Jimmy Conroy was released, I thought he had a chance to actually amount to something. None of the other guys were prospects per se, but I do know that Tony Roth won a game in relief, hit a walk-off homer as a first baseman, and had a 4-for-4 game as a shortstop in the matter of a week this past season (yet he’s list as second baseman here). Talk about versatility. I’d still rather have Ben Himes than Tony Womack. Mike Plugh of Canyon of Heroes has the next big prospect to come out of Asia lined up:

[Hyun-jin]Ryu is a 6’3â€Â?, 215 pound left-handed pitcher who captured the KBO rookie of the year and MVP awards at the age of 19, winning the Triple Crown of pitching in the process. He also took home a gold glove and has led his Korean national team to a Bronze medal in the 2006 Asian Games. The young ace graduated from Dongsan High School in Incheon just last year, and jumped directly into the professional ranks despite recovering from what has been described as a “severe elbow injuryâ€Â?, although I can’t read Korean to search for the precise details of that situation. Hyun-jin’s rookie campaign is noteworthy in the context of minor league pitching, if the KBO is a bit weaker than the Japanese professional competition, and the NPB is generally believed to be a kind of AAAA level. Let’s make the leap of faith that the KBO is AAA, or at worst between AAA and AA. Here are Ryu’s 2006 numbers at that level of play: 30 GS 18-6 record 2.23 ERA 1.046 WHIP 201.2 IP 159 hits 11 HRs 57 runs 50 earned runs 52 BBs 204 Ks 101 pitches per game Reading into these numbers a bit more closely, Ryu produced a 3.92 K/BB ratio, and a 9.10 K/9 mark. He allowed only 2.32 walks per 9, and 7.1 hits per 9 inning pitched. If this was a guy in the Yankees minor league system, where would he be ranked in terms of future potential? Remember he’s 19 years old, and has excellent size. I think you’d have to put him a close 2nd to Phil Hughes, and probably a top 3 or 4 pitching prospect in the entire sport.

If he was under the control of the Yanks right now, I think he’d still have to play second fiddle to Phil Hughes, but that workload at such a young age is a bit scary. I don’t know anything about the kid’s pitch repertoire or anything like that, so don’t waste your time asking. I’m curious to see if the Yanks plan on delving into the Asian market a bit more after CM Wang’s success, but I guess time will tell. I may be behind the times on this one, but I just discovered a great new site called Project Prospect, which (as the name implies) focuses on the increasingly popular world of prospects. They’ve got some great features up, like this profile of Joba Chamberlain, this top 25 prospect list (guess which 2 Yankee farmhands made the cut), this top 10 starting pitcher prospect list (glad to see Lincecum made the cut, if I had the 1st pick in the 2006 draft I’d have taken him in a heartbeat), and this top 10 outfield prospect list. From the looks of it the site has been around since early September, and it’s great to see minor league baseball in general get more exposure. Now only if college ball could get some love… Here’s a good roundup of how all the guys playing winter ball are doing. Looks like Mr. Casadiego is having a fine time in Venezuela. If you subscribe to BA’s daily email, you’d have seen yesterday that Melky is playing winter ball in the Dominican, where he’s hitting over .300 with a bunch of doubles. No word on how Robbie Cano’s doing in winter ball, but based on what the talent pool usually looks like, he’s a man amongst boys (or more appropriately, a young adult amongst boys) and probably dominating at the plate. Even if there’s some massive news that comes out of Yankeeland over the next 4 days, I won’t be around to chime in about it. Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Kwanzaa, Happy whatever-you-celebrate (I don’t mean that in an insensitive prick kind of way). Assuming you’re off from work until Wednesday like I am, just keep in mind the real meaning behind the holiday break - Santa’s birthday. Seriously folks, Happy Holidays. Update: MiLB.com reviewed their early season predictions for the AL East:

NEW YORK YANKEES Organizational MVP: Eric Duncan. He’ll take the lessons learned during a trying 2005 season and the success from the AFL to have a big 2006 in Columbus and show he’s ready for the Bronx in 2007. Ummm, not quite. Duncan suffered through some injuries and didn’t seem ready for Triple-A in 2006. After 31 games, a .209 average and a trip to the DL, he went back down to Double-A. He hit just .248 over 57 games with Trenton, but some of the pop did come back (10 homers, 15 doubles). The 2007 season should be a big one for the former first-round pick. As for player of the year, the Yankees haven’t announced it yet, but it could be Cody Ehlers or Brett Gardner. Cy on the farm: Tyler Clippard. While the easy pick would be Phil Hughes in the Florida State League, the pick here is that Clippard will again pile up some huge numbers, first in Trenton and then to destinations unknown. Not as far off track as the Duncan pick. Hughes will probably get the nod after his season in the Eastern League (he made just five FSL starts), but Clippard had a fine season, also with Trenton. He finished tied for second in the system with 12 wins and led the organization with 175 strikeouts. His 3.35 ERA over 166 1/3 innings was good for seventh in the Eastern League, he held hitters to a .200 average and he pitched a nine-inning, complete-game no-hitter in August. Level leaper of the year: Brett Gardner. J. Brent Cox may get the press as a guy making it to the bigs quickly, but Gardner could make a couple of jumps in 2006, starting in Tampa and perhaps even making a September showing in the Bronx. It turned out to be just one jump, but it was quite a season for the speedy outfielder. After hitting .323 with a .433 OBP and 30 steals in 63 games with Tampa, he moved up to Double-A and hit .272 over 55 games. He used a .352 OBP to help him steal 28 more bases. For the season, he stole 58 in 70 attempts, finishing with a combined .298 average and .395 OBP. Most likely to go 30-30: Tim Battle. The speed is already there; all he needs is slightly better pitch recognition to bring up the power numbers. He got the steals part, does that count for something? Battle couldn’t hack the Florida State League, hitting .133 over 36 games, so he headed back to Charleston. There, he hit .265 with 24 steals over 94 games. Overall, he finished with 30 steals on the nose, but he only hit six homers (and just 28 extra-base hits in total). The pitch recognition thing didn’t happen as Battle struck out 142 times in 130 games, while drawing just 32 walks. Best affiliate to visit: Charleston. Aside from the climate, this is the place to go to see some of the most athletic prospects in the game. The RiverDogs should have C.J. Henry at short, Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata in the outfield, a trio that has enough tools to make Tim Allen jealous. We should be penalized just for that awful TV reference. That being said, Charleston had an interesting season. They didn’t make the playoffs, but they did finish with a 78-62 overall record, the third-best in the South Atlantic League. Henry didn’t have a very good season with Charleston, then got traded to the Phillies and eventually Sally champion Lakewood in the Bobby Abreu deal. Tabata and Jackson were both South Atlantic League All-Stars. Tabata also went to the Futures Game and has as much buzz as any young prospect in baseball. Jackson’s season was a little more uneven, but he swiped 37 bases and if he can make better contact (151 K’s, but with a nice 61 walks), he’ll be even better in the future. End result: We’ll be kind to ourselves and say we went 2-for-5, hitting on the Gardner and Charleston predictions.

If I ever let another Tim Allen reference appear on this blog - from my writing or someone else’s - unbookmark me.

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